Fundamental research on individual Asia Pacific companies: initiations, company visits and meeting takeaways, and notes on catalysts such as primary listing conversions and index inclusion.
Anthropic released Haiku 5.5 on 7 Oct at an OpenRouter list price of USD0.10 per 1M input tokens and USD0.50 per 1M output tokens. We analysed Haiku 5.5's competitiveness against five Chinese models, including MiniMax-M3, on Artificial Analysis intelligence scores and OpenRouter list prices. We reiterate our short view on MiniMax, as M3.1 is unlikely to match Haiku 5.5 and MiniMax faces a placement overhang.
St George Mining (SGQ AU) owns the Araxá niobium and rare earths project in Minas Gerais, Brazil, with an Aug 2026 Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) of 111.2Mt at 0.57% Nb₂O₅ and 3.57% TREO. Brazil dominates global niobium mining, while China and the US, the two largest consumers of the critical material, rely on imported niobium. Niobium’s strategic role in defence, civil and new energy. Niobium and rare earths are part of supply chains that governments treat as strategic. Niobium has a critical role in national security and high-tech development. In defence, niobium superalloys go into hypersonic thermal-protection alloys, engine blades and gas turbines. In civil engineering, niobium steel is used in oil and gas pipelines, bridges and lighter vehicles, and niobium alloys are used in MRI magnets. In new energy, it is used in nuclear-power components and fast-charging EV battery materials. We expect non-steel niobium use to expand as supply catches up with demand. China, the EU and the US accounted for nearly two thirds of global consumption, with niobium on their critical-material lists. Scarcity of niobium supply and the pure exposure offered by SGQ. Niobium production is heavily concentrated amongst a few major players. Aside from the near-monopolistic market structure, geographic concentration is high. Brazil mined 92.9% of the 112,000t produced worldwide in 2025. Three producers dominate supply: CBMM and CMOC in Brazil, plus Niobec in Canada. None of the three producers offers direct and pure equity exposure to niobium. SGQ is a listed and direct niobium play. In addition to niobium, Araxá contains 3.98Mt of total rare earth oxide (TREO) at a time when China’s export controls are pushing buyers to new suppliers. Project development in Araxá is being de-risked. The Araxá project is in the same Barreiro carbonatite complex as CBMM’s mine, with access to roads, rail, renewable electricity and specialised workforce. The area is known for niobium reserves and a track record of niobium production, with established export infrastructure. The company has also brought in experienced former CBMM professionals to lead the project development. Valuation. We initiate coverage of SGQ with a Buy rating and a target price of AUD 0.53. Our TP is based on a risked SOTP NPV of USD 1,633m. Of this, we value the niobium asset at USD 1,278m. We forecast Stage 1 produces 5,000tpa of ferroniobium from 2H 2027, and the 2Mtpa Stage 2 mill from FY2031E lifts output to about 9,800tpa at full run rate. Rare earths add USD 282m of risked value. As the company has explored less than 20% of the project area, exploration updates could provide re-rating catalysts in the near term.
SHEIN listed on the HKEX Main Board on 1 Sep 2026, and we work out entry timing for HSCI, HSI, HSCEI, HS TECH, Stock Connect and MSCI China. HSIL confirmed the HSCI ADD after the 14 Sep 2026 close on 2 Sep, and a 2.3% FF holds MSCI China and HSCEI entry until the 28 Feb 2027 lock-up expiry. The December 2026 HSI review is the first cycle SHEIN can enter, and Southbound inclusion follows the WVR rule of six months plus 20 trading days on 31 Mar 2027.
We spoke to the management of CiDi, a leading China-based physical player. Revenue and gross profit both accelerated sharply in 1H2026, extending several years of triple-digit growth, with management citing an approaching first adjusted-breakeven period. Domestic demand is policy-driven while overseas market is still in early stage of development.
Growth. 1H26 revenue growth slowed sharply vs what is implied from consensus, confirming the reset we expected heading into results. Geography. Overseas revenue growth turned negative for the first time in the current growth cycle. IP sustainability. The flagship IP "The Monsters" declined YoY, partially offset by Twinkle Twinkle.
We met with the management from Wuxi Taclink recently. The company is a STAR-listed stock with a focus on telecom/datacom products. The company is shifting from telecom transmission into DCI/datacom, where Access & Data revenue grew rapidly in 2025. Wuxi and Thailand capacity release must translate into high-end DCI and TFLN transceiver orders at better margins.
Pop Mart provided 1Q26 business update, consistent with our earlier expectation, which adds no directional news. Our key thesis points from April note is still valid. Labubu normalization is now visible in primary data. Consensus remains too high. Margin risk has not yet arrived in reported numbers. Southbound net bought USD 991m since the results week, net buyer in 5 of 7 weeks but stops buying in the last week.
Consensus revisions have been mild and still sit above management's own guidance floor. The next leg of the de-rating needs earnings cuts, not multiple compression. Mainland southbound money is now trapped above the current price, while foreign shorts have rebuilt the position post-results. The post-results buyback is the main incremental bid in the current trading range. It is a near-term risk to the short, but not large enough to matter if the stock breaks lower.