Forecasts, positioning and pre- and post-implementation analysis of MSCI, CSI, Hang Seng, STAR50 and NIFTY index reviews and Stock Connect changes.
MSCI launched a consultation on 15 Oct 2026 on moving Indonesia from Emerging to Standalone status, after freezing certain index changes since January 2026. MSCI decides by 30 Jun 2027 and has not set an implementation date, while Argentina's 2021 move took effect in one step on 30 Nov 2021. We size the selling by MSCI EM and EM IMI tracker ETFs in days of each stock's turnover, highest for Bank Negara Indonesia, Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Astra.
We screen the HSLMI ahead of the first HS TECH review under the new rules, with 20 ADD candidates and no DELETE. The 20 ADD candidates, 10 per stream, include five recent listings and three former constituents. All 30 current constituents rank inside the top 40 by MV12 and pass the velocity test.
We screen the Mainland Securities ahead of the HSCEI review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close. One ADD and one DELETE are screened as high-conviction calls this cycle. The second ADD is mid conviction, and the buffer trim it would trigger is low conviction.
We screen for HSI ADD candidates ahead of the review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close. Four stocks are screened as mid-conviction ADD candidates this cycle. Three of the four are in the most underweight industry group, and the fourth is in Healthcare.
We screen third-quarter listings ahead of the HSCI fast-entry result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close. Unlike September, the December cycle adds only third-quarter listings and waives the velocity test. Six stocks are screened as high-conviction ADD candidates this cycle.
HSIL adopted all six proposed HS TECH changes, five unchanged and one with modifications, and the new rules take effect on 7 Dec 2026. Selection by market value and sales growth was adopted with modifications, adding a turnover floor for non-constituents and a minimum sales test for sales growth candidates. The velocity test, innovation screening, weighting, caps and quarterly review are retained from the current rules.
NSE listed on BSE on 24 Sep 2026. It would rank 11th by full market cap among the Nifty 50 members. In this note, we analyze its path into the Nifty 50 under the NIFTY methodology. We cover its IWF and FF estimates, F&O entry, the timeline to Nifty 50 entry, and the SEBI permission NSE needs to trade on NSE.
We update our March A+H Connect study with 18 ADDs since mid-March, 10 after stabilization and 8 on listing day, against 31 earlier events. After stabilization ends, H-shares now outperform A-shares for about 20 trading days after the Connect ADD, the reverse of the March pattern. On listing-day ADDs, Southbound holdings built faster than on ADDs after stabilization, yet most H-shares fell below the IPO price within 20 trading days.
We update our March A+H Connect study with 18 ADDs since mid-March, 10 after stabilization and 8 on listing day, against 31 earlier events. After stabilization ends, H-shares now outperform A-shares for about 20 trading days after the Connect ADD, the reverse of the March pattern. On listing-day ADDs, Southbound holdings built faster than on ADDs after stabilization, yet most H-shares fell below the IPO price within 20 trading days.
NIFTY 50 rebalance will be effective on 30 Sep 2026 before market open, with one ADD and one DELETE. BSE fell 13.9% and Wipro fell 12.9% over the bridge window to 28 Sep 2026, with one session left before implementation. Historically, ADDs and DELETEs with a negative bridge mostly gained in the first implementation week.
HS TECH September 2026 had 1 ADD and 1 DELETE. With the first implementation week complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history. Iluvatar Corex fell through the first implementation week after its bridge decline. The negative-bridge ADD pattern held, with a deeper fall than the historical average. Tongcheng Travel also kept falling after implementation. The negative-bridge DELETE pattern held, and its decline was deeper than the historical average.
HK Connect's September 2026 implementation had 53 ADDs and 15 DELETEs. We review the first implementation week vs history. ADDs fell in the first implementation week, vs the historical pattern of a first-week gain. Implementation day accounted for most of the average first-week drop. DELETEs fell further than the historical first-week decline, except Low-vel DELETEs.
The HSI Sep 2026 implementation included two ADDs, and the first implementation week is complete. Both ADDs rose on implementation day, unlike most historical negative-bridge ADDs. The first week split. Weichai Power ended down, in line with history, and Hua Hong Grace ended up.
ASX 200 rebalance will be effective on 21 Sep 2026 before market open, with 5 ADDs and 5 DELETEs. Four of the five ADDs gained over the bridge window, led by Sunrise Energy Metals at +28.1%. Tuas was the only DELETE to gain. Historically, ADDs with a positive bridge were evenly split between first-week gains and losses. DELETEs mostly fell in the first implementation week after either bridge direction.
STAR50 rebalance will be effective on 14 Sep 2026 before market open, with 5 ADDs and 5 DELETEs. Four of the five ADDs gained at the post-announcement open, and all five then fell over the rest of the bridge. AVIC Chengdu UAS was the only DELETE to gain. Historically, ADDs with a negative bridge averaged higher first-week returns than ADDs with a positive bridge. DELETEs with a negative bridge mostly kept falling in the first implementation week.
The HS TECH rebalance will be effective on 7 Sep 2026 before market open, with one ADD and one DELETE. Iluvatar Corex's bridge return was -5.0% and Tongcheng Travel's was -10.0%, both following declines in the pre-announcement window. Both names fall into negative-bridge historical groups. Those groups mostly extended lower into the first implementation week.
HSI rebalance will be effective on 7 Sep 2026 before market open, with two ADDs. Hua Hong Grace returned -4.4% and Weichai Power -3.8% over the bridge. Both fell on the first trading day after announcement, then recovered part of the loss. Historically, negative-bridge ADDs declined in the first implementation week in most cases. Both names belong to that group.
HK Connect implementation will be effective on 7 Sep 2026 before market open, with 53 ADDs and 15 DELETEs. ADDs gained +5.2% on average over the bridge and DELETEs fell 10.9%. All 15 DELETEs closed the bridge lower. Historically, positive-bridge ADDs extended their gains in the first implementation week and negative-bridge ADDs were flat. DELETEs kept falling. We place each group in its historical reference set below.
MSCI Japan implements one ADD, Kokusai Electric, and two DELETEs, JFE Holdings and Seibu Holdings, on 1 Sep 2026. We review the completed bridge against nine prior cycles. Kokusai Electric added +2.8% alpha over the bridge on top of its +13.5% pre-announcement run. Both DELETEs were near flat over the bridge after negative announcement days. Historically, positive-bridge ADDs gave back in the first implementation week. The historical DELETE first-week record after a positive bridge is flat.
MSCI China rebalance involved 33 ADDs and 32 DELETEs on 1 Sep 2026. We review the bridge to 31 Aug against the first implementation week record of nine prior cycles. ADDs gave back part of their pre-announcement run over the bridge, down 1.8% on average with 20 of 33 lower. DELETEs fell 5.9%, lower in 25 of 32. Historically, the first implementation week after a negative bridge has been small and mixed on both sides. We map each velocity group to its matching historical record below.
CSI announced five ADDs and five DELETEs for the STAR50 Sep 2026 review, matching all five of our DELETE calls and two of our five ADD calls. Raytron Technology, Sichuan Huafeng Technology, Beijing E-Town Semiconductor, Arashi Vision, and SJ Semiconductor enter on 14 Sep 2026, replacing Cathay Biotech, AVIC Chengdu UAS, EverDisplay Optronics, Bestechnic, and APT Medical. All five ADDs fell in the ten days before the announcement. Historically, ADDs with that pattern opened higher at the post-announcement open and then lost ground into implementation.
Unitree still trades at 3.9x its IPO price after a strong post-listing move, so we estimate the index ADD timeline below. Unitree's since-listing average total market cap has fallen to 7th on the STAR Market, missing fast-entry thresholds by 8% to 9%. Earliest windows are Dec 2026 for STAR50, Aug 2027 for SSE A Share, Dec 2027 for CSI 300, and Jan 2028 for Connect. MSCI can follow in Feb 2028 if Connect is included before its cutoff.
The September 2026 HSCI review adds 53 names to southbound Connect, 49 new and 4 returning, and removes 15, all effective 7 Sep 2026. The announced list ran wider than our forecast. 33 of our 36 ADD calls and 14 of 25 DELETE calls were announced, plus 20 ADDs we did not call. Current ADDs rose into the announcement and DELETEs fell. Historically, ADD-NEWs outperformed ADD-REJOINs over the bridge, while DELETEs fell further after announcement.
HS TECH September 2026 review announced one active ADD and one active DELETE. Iluvatar Corex enters and Tongcheng Travel leaves, effective 7 Sep 2026. Both names fell into the announcement in the pre-announcement window. Historically, comparable ADDs kept rising after the open, and comparable DELETEs rebounded after announcement day.
HSIL announced the Sep 2026 rebalance results, with two ADDs and no DELETE. Hua Hong Grace and Weichai Power join the HSI on 7 Sep 2026. Both ADDs fell into the announcement. Historically, positive opening gaps averaged -2.3% post-open, so we wait for the open before sizing.
CXMT listed on the SSE STAR Market on 27 Jul 2026. This note works through the entry rules and timing for Stock Connect, STAR50 and CSI 300. We estimate Northbound Connect access in Nov 2026 and a possible STAR50 ADD in Dec 2026. Then CSI 300 ADD in December 2027. It is already in MSCI China All Shares. Then a possible MSCI China ADD would follow at the February 2027 review, effective 1 Mar 2027.
We screen the HS TECH eligible universe ahead of the September 2026 quarterly review. One non-constituent ranks inside the ADD Zone this cycle, paired with one Buffer Zone DELETE. Both calls are mid conviction, as the DELETE candidate is inside the Buffer Zone and close to the DELETE Zone.
We screen the STAR Market eligible universe ahead of the STAR50 Sep 2026 review. Four stocks stand out as high-conviction ADDs this cycle, all with clear rank cushions. We expect 3 high-conviction DELETEs and 2 mid-conviction DELETEs due to their proximity to the edge of DELETE zone.
MSCI adds 33 names to MSCI China and deletes 32, effective 1 Sep 2026. The ADDs include 31 A-shares and 2 HK stocks, the DELETEs 25 and 7. Our ADD Hit rate was 15 of 16 announced (94%), with 1 false positive in 16 calls. DELETE Hit rate was 9 of 12 (75%). All announced 33 ADDs enter the bridge after a +20.3% average run. We won't chase gap-ups.
MSCI adds Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) and deletes JFE Holdings (5411 JP) and Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) from MSCI Japan, effective 1 Sep 2026. Kokusai Electric enters with +13.5% pre-announcement alpha. Only 5 of 17 historical ADDs entered higher. Positive-gap historical ADDs often faded over the remaining bridge. We assign both DELETEs to the high-velocity group. Flat-to-down opens suggest a DELETE bridge fade.
We review the proposed HS TECH rule changes and screen an early beneficiary list for the December 2026 rebalance. Our screening returns 20 ADD candidates, 10 based on market value and 10 based on revenue growth. We expect all 30 current constituents are retained, and ten ADD candidates await theme review under the expanded sub-theme list.
We screen the Japan equity universe ahead of the MSCI Japan August 2026 quarterly review. We expect one ADD and two DELETE candidates with mid to high conviction. The main risk is that our estimated cutoffs or FF values differ from the values MSCI uses.
We screen China stocks ahead of the MSCI China August 2026 quarterly review, with 16 ADD and 22 DELETE candidates. Nine of 16 ADD candidates are Information Technology names, and six cleared the May cutoffs without being added. The DELETE list splits into 12 names below the retention lines across the full cutoff range and 10 borderline names.
We screen our HSCI September 2026 review candidates for southbound Connect action, with 36 Connect ADDs and 25 DELETEs. ADD candidates split into 31 ADD-NEW and 5 ADD-REJOIN, with one WVR name deferred and seven A+H names already in Connect. DELETE candidates are 23 MV cases and 2 velocity cases, after one A+H name is exempt from Connect deletion.
Connect inclusion. We expect MiniMax (100 HK) to enter southbound Stock Connect on 6 Aug 2026 after exchange announcements before the open. Southbound demand. We use Zhipu's (2513 HK) post-inclusion southbound accumulation as the closest precedent for MiniMax. Revision, tokens and re-rating. Revenue upgrades are running ahead of share supply. OpenRouter data show M3 usage weakness and a valuation gap vs Zhipu.
We screen the Hong Kong-listed mainland stocks ahead of the HSCEI August 2026 review. The screen produces one ADD and one DELETE, and the DELETE fires only if the ADD lands. We note that the committee skipped the same ADD candidate last review but re-iterate our call.
We review the HSLMI universe for potential candidates for the upcoming HSI August 2026 review. Three stocks stand out as ADD candidates this cycle, one of them high conviction. We also highlight substantial FF and weight changes for CATL.
We screen HK stocks ahead of the HSCI September 2026 half-yearly review, with 44 ADD candidates and 26 DELETE candidates. ADD candidates are mostly new listings and prior constituents, including seven A+H names already in Connect. DELETE candidates include 21 MV DELETEs, three retention-line borderline names, and two velocity cases.
Following HSCI's May 2026 review, six names became HK Connect eligible in the June 2026 implementation, with no deletions. All post-implementation windows through weeks 2 to 4 are complete. ADD first-week returns fell, but less than the historical first-week decline. Breadth was better than the historical base rate, and weeks 2 to 4 turned positive. Our pre-implementation first-week decline read held for the positive-bridge names, while the negative-bridge group split against its severe-decline precedent.
CSI added four stocks and deleted four in the Jun 2026 STAR50 rebalance. The first implementation week and weeks 2 to 4 are complete. Every ADD rose through the first implementation week, vs the historical fade, and most of the cohort kept the gain through weeks 2 to 4. Most DELETEs fell in the first week, in line with history. SICC rallied vs its negative-bridge base rate before a reversal in weeks 2 to 4, and the historical weeks 2 to 4 rebound did not appear.
CSI 300 June 2026 added 19 stocks and deleted 19. With all post-implementation windows complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history. ADDs rose broadly in the first implementation week. The historical fade read was offset by a stronger CSI 300 tape and tungsten-specific newsflow. Weeks 2 to 4 reversed the gains. DELETEs fell in the first week and drifted lower in weeks 2 to 4. The direction matched history, and the losses were milder than in prior cycles.
HSTECH June 2026 added KNOWLEDGE ATLAS and MINIMAX-W and deleted KINGSOFT and KINGDEE INT'L. All event windows through the fourth post-implementation week are complete. Both ADDs fell in the first implementation week, far beyond the historical ADD first-week means. KNOWLEDGE ATLAS then gained +46.8% in weeks two to four. The positive-bridge DELETE rebound held for KINGSOFT at +3.9% but missed for KINGDEE INT'L at -12.3%.
HSCEI June 2026 added Hansoh Pharma and Akeso and deleted Sunny Optical and Haier Smart Home. All event windows through the fourth post-implementation week are complete. ADDs were mixed in the first implementation week, then both rallied in weeks two to four. DELETEs broke the historical positive-bridge rebound pattern. Sunny Optical drove the miss with a -12.8% first-week return.
Hang Seng Indexes added three stocks with no DELETE in the May review. The first implementation week is complete, and we review current-cycle performance vs history. All three ADDs fell in the first implementation week. The cohort averaged -4.1%, vs the historical ADD mean of -0.6%. The pre-implementation base rates held for the two negative-bridge names. Weeks 2 to 4 then split the cohort: Chalco fell -26.6% while J&T Express and BeOne Medicines rebounded.
MSCI Japan June 2026 added 3 stocks and deleted 14. With the first implementation week complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history. ADDs gave back after a positive bridge. All 3 ADDs fell in WI0-4, with aggregate return of -9.0% vs the historical ADD mean of -2.9%. DELETEs rose +3.4% in WI0-4, the strongest first-week result in the study history. Low-velocity DELETEs also rose, returning +2.6% across 4 names with data.
MSCI China June 2026 added 21 stocks and deleted 24. With the first implementation week complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history. A-share ADDs split by velocity. High-vel gains centered on Yangtze, while Mid- and Low-vel names fell further after implementation. HK DELETEs had the weakest bridge return in the study history and partially recovered to +1.4% in the first implementation week. The recovery came from two names and was not basket-wide.
CSI announced four ADDs and four DELETEs for STAR50, effective 15 Jun 2026. Bridge-window data is complete through 12 Jun 2026. Yuanjie Semi led the ADD bridge gains, while Hua Hong Semiconductor reversed its pre-announcement gains. SICC had the weakest bridge performance among the DELETEs. Historically, positive-bridge ADDs averaged weaker first-week returns. Negative-bridge DELETEs showed the most consistent first-week losses.
CSI confirmed 19 ADDs and 19 DELETEs for the June 2026 rebalance, effective 15 Jun 2026. ADD gains narrowed to seven positive-bridge names, led by Xiamen Tungsten and China Tungsten. DELETEs fell -4.4% on average. Historical first-week outcomes were negative on average for both ADD and DELETE, but different subgroup recorded varied performance.
Following HSCI's quarterly review in May 2026, we expect six names to become HK Connect eligible effective 8 June 2026. Four of these names fell through the bridge window. Two recorded position return in the pre-implementation window. Historically, the implementation-day opening has been the moment to capture. The full first week for prior Connect ADDs skewed negative, with gains tending to reverse after the open.
HSTECH June 2026 rebalance takes effect on 8 Jun 2026. Two ADDs and two DELETEs enter implementation on that date. MINIMAX-W fell through the bridge. KNOWLEDGE ATLAS was flat. Both DELETEs rose over the same period. Historical first-week outcomes showed weak ADD precedent. Positive-bridge DELETEs showed a small first-week gain.
HSCEI June 2026 implementation takes effect on 8 Jun 2026, with Hansoh and Akeso as ADDs and Sunny Optical and Haier Smart Home as DELETEs. Both ADDs declined through the bridge while DELETE names rose over the same period. Historical first-week outcomes for negative-bridge ADDs were weak while positive-bridge DELETEs kept a positive first-week bias.
Hang Seng Indexes announced the May review results after market close, and three ADD-NEW names enter implementation. Chalco and BeOne reversed their announcement-day gains through the bridge; J&T Express kept a positive bridge return. Historical ADDs with negative bridge returns had weaker first-week outcomes, while positive-bridge ADDs had mixed first-week outcomes.
MSCI announced the quarterly review results after market close. As the cycle enters implementation, this note updates the stock setup. ADDs entered implementation after a large pre-announcement move and still carry first-week give-back risk. DELETEs were mild before implementation, but low-velocity DELETEs retain the weakest historical post-implementation profile.
MSCI announced the quarterly review results on 12 May 2026. As the cycle enters implementation, this note updates the stock setup. ADD weakness is broad, with CH Mid-vel and CH Low-vel both failing to build bridge support. DELETEs already sold off, but HK High-vel DELETE still has the weakest first-week implementation profile.
CSI announced four ADDs and four DELETEs for the STAR50 Jun 2026 review, effective 15 Jun 2026. Our forecast hit one ADD and three DELETEs. We reviewed our HITs and MISSes. The ADD miss came from one near-zone name and two fast-entry AI-chip names; stock-level positioning now drives whether to chase or fade.
CSI announced 19 ADDs and 19 DELETEs effective 15 Jun 2026, the largest cycle in our four-cycle reference set. We reviewed 19 ADDs and 19 DELETEs against four prior CSI 300 cycles and the completed pre-announcement setup. The prior forecast captured the four strongest ADDs and six of the seven weakest DELETEs, with misses mainly in buffer-zone ADDs and retained-risk DELETEs.
HSIL announced six immediate Connect ADDs and zero DELETEs, effective 8 Jun 2026. Three delayed ADDs remain outside this study pending stock splits. Our 4 May forecast called five of six ADDs correctly. Pre-announcement cohort return matched history, but stock dispersion was far wider than prior cycles. Opening-gap size should drive bridge-window entry.
Hang Seng announced Hansoh Pharma and Akeso as ADDs, and Sunny Optical and Haier Smart Home as DELETEs, effective 8 Jun 2026. Our 23 Apr forecast called both DELETEs and Hansoh Pharma, but WuXi Biologics was not announced and Akeso was not in the formal slate. Both ADD names fell through pre-announcement window and enter bridge window with negative pre-announcement returns, below the historical ADD pre-announcement return.
Hang Seng Indexes announced three HSI ADDs and no DELETE for the May 2026 review after market close. We reviewed three ADDs against 13 prior HSI rebalance cycles and the completed post announcement setup. The prior forecast identified BeOne and no DELETE, while J&T Express and Chalco were outside the forecast slate.
Hang Seng announced index review for the June 2026 Rebalance. Our pre-announcement note dated 11 May 2026 called both ADD candidates and both DELETE candidates correctly, with zero false positives and zero misses. We analyzed dynamics around two ADDs, from historical perspective, on the post-announcement positioning. We also analyzed dynamics around two DELETEs.
We screened the CSI 300 eligible universe ahead of the Jun 2026 semi-annual rebalance. ADDs: we expect 4 High Conviction ADDs, 6 Mid Conviction ADDs, and 3 Low Conviction ADDs. We also flag 2 Skip ADDs due to CG/CSRC issues. DELETEs: we expect 8 Likely DELETEs, 3 Borderline DELETEs, 4 Rank-Driven DELETEs, and 1 Potential Retain.
We analyzed the post-announcement return pattern of MSCI China June 2026 rebalance stocks, separating A-share (CH) and H-share (HK) cohorts within both ADD and DELETE groups. DELETE: WPreA was positive, but CH and HK High-vel history still supports shorts. ADD: CH High-vel was stretched; WAI history is positive but inconsistent.
We analyzed the post-announcement return pattern of MSCI Japan rebalance stocks in the context of past MSCI Japan cycles. DELETE: 14 names averaged −5.3% WPreA alpha before announcement; all 14 negative; flat on WAI Day 1. HIGH and MID-velocity names historically produce negative WAI alpha. LOW-velocity names historically fall post-implementation. ADD: All three stocks ran +18–21% WPreA alpha before announcement. WAI Day 1 returns split by velocity group. Historical ADD WAI alpha is mixed across prior cycles.
HSCI entry. MiniMax becomes a strong HSCI candidate for June 2026 with MV12 of HKD 225bn. HS TECH entry. We expect MiniMax to enter HS TECH at the May 2026 review. HSI barrier. The FY25 net loss will likely fail it for the immediate HSI review.
We screened the HS TECH eligible universe ahead of the May 2026 quarterly review, expecting Hang Seng Indexes to announce the rebalance on 22 May 2026 based on data through 31 March 2026. We forecast two additions and two deletions: MiniMax Group (100 HK) and Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK) enter the 30-constituent index, while Kingdee International Software (268 HK) and Kingsoft Corporation (3888 HK) are removed. Based on index-tracking ETF aggregate AUM of HKD 370bn, estimated inflows are HKD 3.3bn for MiniMax and HKD 6.3bn for Knowledge Atlas. MiniMax ranks 12th by MV12 at HKD 225.2bn with a pro-forma index weight of 0.9%, while Knowledge Atlas ranks 19th at HKD 95.5bn with a higher effective weight of 1.7% due to its 35.0% FAF proxy. Kingsoft sits in the forced delete zone at rank 37, while Kingdee at rank 33 remains in the buffer zone, leaving open the possibility that HSIL retains Kingdee and defers its removal to the August review.
We analyzed the STAR Market eligible universe ahead of the CSI STAR50 May 2026 index review, with a data cut-off of 30 April 2026 and rebalance effective 15 June 2026. Our screen ranked constituents by 12-month average daily total A-share market cap (MV12) and applied eligibility filters that excluded 33 names, producing two high-conviction ADD candidates, one borderline ADD, one high-conviction DELETE, and two borderline DELETEs. On the ADD side, Yuanjie Semiconductor (688498 CH, MV12 CNY 46.6 bn, rank 27) and Dosilicon (688110 CH, MV12 CNY 41.1 bn, rank 35) are high conviction, while Raytron Technology (688002 CH, MV12 CNY 39.5 bn, rank 38) sits at the entry boundary with low conviction. On the DELETE side, MGI Tech (688114 CH, MV12 CNY 27.0 bn, rank 76) is high conviction, while Xiamen Amoytop Biotech (688278 CH, rank 65) and Sany Renewable Energy (688349 CH, rank 63) are borderline, with committee discretion the key variable. Our model carries 77.8% ADD accuracy and 100% DELETE accuracy across the four 2025 review cycles.
We analyzed the HSCI eligible universe ahead of the Hang Seng Indexes Company May 2026 quarterly review, screening Q1 2026 listings for fast-entry qualification using data as of 31 March 2026. Our screen returns six stocks meeting the quantitative size threshold for HSLI or HSMI addition, with five rated high conviction and one mid conviction. The five high-conviction additions are KNOWLEDGE ATLAS (2513 HK, MV12 HKD 95.5bn, HSLI), BUSYMING (1768 HK, MV12 HKD 86.6bn, HSLI), ILUVATAR COREX (9903 HK, MV12 HKD 56.4bn, HSMI), BIREN TECH (6082 HK, MV12 HKD 41.0bn, HSMI), and HAIZHI TECH GP (2706 HK, MV12 HKD 34.7bn, HSMI). The sixth name, MINIMAX-W (100 HK, MV12 HKD 225.2bn, HSLI), is mid conviction due to two open questions: whether HSIL treats its Q1 listing date as valid given its P label specialist status was only lifted in March 2026, and its W share class, which disqualifies it from southbound Connect inclusion at the June effective date. We expect no deletions under the fast-entry rule.
We assess the HSI and HSCEI index impact of CATL's 62.4m primary share placement across four review cycles to May 2027. HSI weight rises toward 0.8–0.9% at the Sep 2026 rebalance; HSCEI inclusion likely by Feb 2027 as post-placement shares dominate the MV12 window. Two passive flow events totalling 5.36m shares for HSI and HSCEI will happen over two implementation cycles.
We analyzed the HSCEI eligible universe for the upcoming May 2026 index review, forecasting two deletions and two inclusions based on mechanical rank boundaries. Sunny Optical (2382 HK, Combined MV Rank 64, MV12 HKD 75.3bn) and Haier Smarthome (6690 HK, Combined MV Rank 61, MV12 HKD 71.0bn) both breach the rank-60 exclusion threshold and are forecast to be removed. WuXi Biologics (2269 HK, Combined MV Rank 33, MV12 HKD 132.1bn) qualifies as a mandatory inclusion under the rank-40 rule, representing a first-time addition to the index. Hansoh Pharma (3692 HK, Combined MV Rank 44, MV12 HKD 205.3bn) is the expected buffer-zone fill, though its inclusion is contingent on maintaining its position as the highest-ranked non-constituent in the 41-60 band, with Akeso (9926 HK, rank 45) as the nearest displacement risk. Both Healthcare names are added, with the primary forecast risk being FAF estimation differences versus HSIL's published inputs, particularly for Hansoh where FFMV rank (60) is the binding factor.
We review the HSLMI universe for potential candidates for the upcoming HSI May 2026 review. Two stocks stand out as high-conviction candidates for index inclusion this cycle. The rest of the shortlist looks more marginal and more dependent on committee discretion.
We analyzed 39 ADD and 25 DELETE stocks from the March 2026 HK Connect implementation event (T_imp 9 Mar 2026) across six event windows from baseline through four weeks post-implementation, with September 2025 (20 ADD, 20 DELETE) as our cross-cycle reference. ADD stocks reversed their WAI drawdown of -5.3% at implementation, returned +5.4% on WI0 and +7.2% through the first week (WI0-4), and faded to +1.1% by weeks 2 to 4. DELETE stocks declined -13.3% WI0-4 (21 of 25 negative), exceeded the September 2025 cycle result of -11.0%, and generated alpha of -12.5% versus HSI. Within ADD, Healthcare led at +16.0% (n=13) and Information Technology returned +9.2% (n=6), while the combined Consumer cohort was the weakest at -8.9% (2 of 8 positive). The largest individual movers were Xunce (3317 HK, +48.7% WI0-4) and DeepExi Tech (1384 HK, -57.7%) within ADD, and Hao Tian International (1341 HK, -42.6%) and Zonqing (1855 HK, -42.4%) within DELETE, where Connect ownership drawdown correlated r=0.51 with WI0-4 returns.
We measured cross-window alpha for the 53 names in the March 2026 MSCI China rebalance, vs the MSCI China benchmark, from WPreA through WI4 (60 days post-implementation). We split the ADD and DELETE cohorts by FF/ADV bucket (LOW/MID/HIGH) to separate the active-positioning trades from the passive-flow trades. We tested implementation-day intraday signals (R/O opening gap, R/I open-to-close) against later-window outcomes to find any forward-predictive read on the post-implementation path.