Corporate events that move individual stocks: lock-up expiries, primary listing conversions, privatisations and convertible bond conversions, with the trading evidence from past events.
We lay out MiniMax's September liquidity events, from today's Undertaking (b) unlock through the 21 Sep bond conversion window. We review the stock's post-Connect inclusion trading, including southbound buying, short interest, consensus revisions. We assess the overhang associated with the lock up events.
Baidu announced on 27 Aug 2026 following the EGM and before market open that its dual-primary listing takes effect on 1 Sep 2026. Baidu clears the two WVR first-inclusion thresholds for both market cap and turnover. All five prior conversions saw positive 10-day returns and positive 10-day southbound inflows after Connect ADD.
Primary conversion. Baidu (9888 HK) announced on 16 Jul 2026 that its board approved pursuing dual-primary conversion. This note assesses the Connect path, conditions, and timeline. ADD timing. Baidu retains WVR through conversion, so the ADD path runs through the regular semi-annual cycle. We assess whether the September 2026 regular batch ADD is attainable. Trading perspective. Prior Connect ADD cases show positive southbound flows in all five peers and positive 10-day returns in all five.
The 9 July wave. We detail the 153.5m-share six-month unlock, its holder composition, and the full cornerstone book. Seller incentive. We assess how the share-price reset from the March peak changes holders' motivation to exit. Positioning signals. We track token usage after the M3 launch, consensus revisions, and short positioning into the event.
Primary conversion. NetEase (9999 HK) announced on 26 Jun 2026 that its HK primary conversion will be effective on 30 Jun 2026. This note assesses the Connect eligibility path and inclusion timeline. Inclusion timing. NetEase has no WVR, but Alibaba's recent regular-cycle ADD keeps September as the base case. Trading perspective. Prior Connect ADD cases show southbound inflows after ADD and positive returns post inclusion.
We update the A+H cornerstone lock-up expiry study with 18 deals and a longer post-expiry observation window. The revised pattern is timing-driven. Early post-expiry trading was resilient, while weakness appeared later than the February note captured. A-H premium is a clear cross-sectional screen in this sample.
The first unlock wave should dominate near-term liquidity as supply expands sharply. Revenue growth does not offset supply risk while losses remain deep and model read-through is mixed. Reported short interest shows investors are already positioning before the event.
We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals from the Jan to Nov 2025 listing cohort to measure price action around the IPO+6M lock-up expiry. Selling pressure from cornerstone selling overhang is deal-size dependent. Sponsor mix further refines the screen. Pure international-sponsored deals underperformed other cohorts.