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Anthropic's third-quarter revenue rose 45% on the quarter to USD 16.8bn, slower than in Q2, and some pre-IPO investors reportedly discussed a USD 1.5T valuation, below the USD 2T it sought in September. Meta released Muse Wonder and the open-weight Muse Spark Open, SpaceXAI's Grok Voice 3.0 topped a speech benchmark, and TSMC and ASML raised their 2026 outlooks. China proposed export controls on AI models and computing clusters, CoreWeave's credit-risk gauge hit a record, DeepSeek's round reached about CNY 100bn and Tencent sold USD 5.7bn of bonds.
Jio set IPO terms for up to INR 302bn (USD 3.17bn). Dongshan reportedly began marketing a USD 2-3bn A+H listing, and AirTrunk reportedly postponed a USD 1.5bn REIT IPO. Transsion, the week's only HK listing, raised USD 390m and fell 1.9% on day one. Nine listings in the past month have a median return of -11.0% since IPO. On HKEX, one company filed an AP and one filed a PHIP. CSRC published filing notices for Dongshan and Youibot. Slender West Lake is due to list on 23 Oct.
Taotao, a maker of low-speed electric vehicles, electric two-wheelers and powersports vehicles, is seeking an A+H listing. CITIC is the sole sponsor. We look at the company's core segments: E-mobility products, mainly low-speed electric vehicles, and powersports. We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on the A-H premium.
We analyzed the latest HK SFC aggregate short position report as of Oct 9th. Aggregate short value for equities increased by $2,575m (+1.9%) week over week and increased by $1,805m (+1.3%) over the preceding four weeks. Short covering was concentrated in a handful of names, led by Lenovo (992 HK), which fell $271m (-7.0%) over one week and $774m (-17.7%) over four weeks, alongside Xl2Csophynix (7709 HK), down $177m (-13.4%) over one week and $471m (-29.3%) over four weeks. On the increase side, Tencent (700 HK) led with short value up $372m (+9.1%) over one week and $570m (+14.6%) over four weeks, followed by Baba (9988 HK), up $237m (+9.4%) over one week and $151m (+5.8%) over four weeks. Other notable movers include AIA (1299 HK), down $148m (-11.4%), CCB (939 HK), up $142m (+9.4%) over one week and $336m (+25.6%) over four weeks, China Life (2628 HK), up $102m (+13.0%) over one week and $264m (+42.8%) over four weeks, Z.Ai (2513 HK), up $100m (+19.5%) over one week but down $161m (-20.8%) over four weeks, and Insilico (3696 HK) and Sbp (1177 HK), which saw short covering of $46m (-22.0%) and $46m (-13.0%) respectively over one week.
We analyzed changes in short interest for the Stock Exchange of Thailand as of October 16th, 2026. Aggregated short interest across stocks with minimum market capitalization of USD100 million and minimum short interest of USD5 million was USD3,430m, up 0.4% from USD3,416m a week earlier. The SET50 index rose 0.6% over the same period, outpacing the increase in short interest. SCB X led weekly increases, with short value up USD10.3m (+11.8%) and shares shorted up 10.2%, while Cal-Comp Electronics saw the largest percentage decline, with short value down USD1.6m (-20.5%) and shares shorted down 23.6%. Gunkul Engineering posted the largest increase in short interest relative to its historical average, rising 2.5 standard deviations above the mean, with short value up 20.9% and shares shorted up 21.8%.
We analyzed margin trading positions for A-share stocks with market cap of at least USD500m as of October 16th. The aggregated net margin trading position was USD332,974m, down 2.6% from USD341,906m a week earlier. The net margin trading position decreased by 2.6% while the CSI 300 index decreased by 3.4% over the same week. 2,230 stocks saw their margin loan position increase and 747 stocks saw it decrease. SHENZHEN TECHWINSEMI TECHNOLOGY led net margin buying with a 53.3% weekly increase, adding USD308m, followed by DOSILICON, up 71.1% and adding USD211m, and PING AN INSURANCE, adding USD157m. Moutai led net margin selling, down 8.6% and losing USD225m, followed by EAST MONEY INFORMATION, down 7.0% and losing USD109m, and Yangtze Power, down 3.5% and losing USD65m.
We analyzed changes in short interest across Bursa Malaysia stocks as of Oct 16th. Aggregated short interest was USD1,364m, down 2.0% from USD1,392m a week earlier. Short interest fell while the KLSE index was roughly flat, down 0.0% for the week. Tenaga Nasional's short value rose 40.0% to USD29.8m and CIMB's rose 17.3% to USD88.3m, while Gamuda's short value fell 18.4% to USD114.2m and Heineken's fell 52.8% to USD1.8m. Aeon Credit Service's short interest increased by 1.12x ADT and Mah Sing's short value rose 18.9% to USD3.6m.
We analyzed changes in short interest for TWSE stocks as of October 16th. Aggregated short interest was USD42.3bn, up 2.0% from USD41.5bn a week ago. Short interest increased while the TWSE index decreased 4.5% over the same week. Nanya Technology led increases with short value up 135.1% to USD1,109m, followed by LARGAN Precision up 42.3% to USD1,107m and Hon Hai Precision up 53.4% to USD625m. Wiwynn led decreases with short value down 32.9% to USD719m, followed by BizLink down 28.6% to USD471m and Zhen Ding Technology down 22.6% to USD599m.
We analyzed changes in foreign holdings of TWSE stocks as of Oct 16th. Total foreign holdings were USD2,234.8bn, down from USD2,409bn a week earlier, a decrease of USD174bn or 7.2% week over week. We estimate foreign flows were net outflows of USD16,839m for the week, while the TWSE index fell 4.5% over the same period. TSMC led outflows with a weekly decline of USD8,074m, followed by MediaTek at USD2,355m, Nanya Technology at USD1,199m, Delta Electronics at USD1,165m, and Yageo at USD604m. On the inflow side, Evergreen Marine gained USD243m, Taiwan Surface Mounting Technology gained USD175m, and Yuanta Financial gained USD150m.
We analyzed the A-H premium on 200 A-H listed stocks for the week ending October 16th. The average A-H premium stood at 94.3%, up 1.3ppt week-on-week. The increase was led by Communication Services, Information Technology, and Energy, while Real Estate, Health Care, and Consumer Staples lagged, with 117 stocks seeing premium increases versus 83 declines. Xinhua Winshare led the gainers with a 90.3ppt jump to 290.6%, followed by Chenming Paper, up 45.7ppt to 348.9%, and Yofc, up 43.3ppt to 213.6%. China Shenhua and Petrochina posted the highest z-scores among gainers, rising 12.2ppt and 11.4ppt respectively to reach 52-week highs, while Hx Bldg Mat fell 18.6ppt to 62.4%, the sharpest decline by z-score.
We analyzed southbound Hong Kong Connect holding flows as of October 16th, estimating net inflows of USD 227.5 million into Hong Kong stocks by mainland investors last week. These inflows were 71.8% lower than the USD 807.3 million recorded two weeks ago, marking a second consecutive week of inflows, and compared against a 0.7% return for HSCEI over the same period. By sector, Financials led inflows at USD 738 million, followed by Consumer Discretionary at USD 524 million and Communication Services at USD 502 million, while Information Technology led outflows at USD 794 million. Top inflow stocks were AIA (1299 HK, USD 564 million, +5.7% 7-day price change), Tencent (700 HK, USD 299 million, +0.7%), Baba (9988 HK, USD 209 million, +4.8%), China Res Land (1109 HK, USD 130 million, +2.3%), and Akeso (9926 HK, USD 122 million, -13.0%). Top outflow stocks were Smic (981 HK, USD -369 million, -10.8%), Yofc (6869 HK, USD -320 million, -21.4%), TraHK HSI ETF (2800 HK, USD -211 million, +1.0%), Wuxi Bio (2269 HK, USD -195 million, -12.3%), and Hua Hong Grace (1347 HK, USD -173 million, -21.1%).
MSCI launched a consultation on 15 Oct 2026 on moving Indonesia from Emerging to Standalone status, after freezing certain index changes since January 2026. MSCI decides by 30 Jun 2027 and has not set an implementation date, while Argentina's 2021 move took effect in one step on 30 Nov 2021. We size the selling by MSCI EM and EM IMI tracker ETFs in days of each stock's turnover, highest for Bank Negara Indonesia, Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Astra.
We screen the HSLMI ahead of the first HS TECH review under the new rules, with 20 ADD candidates and no DELETE. The 20 ADD candidates, 10 per stream, include five recent listings and three former constituents. All 30 current constituents rank inside the top 40 by MV12 and pass the velocity test.
We analyzed Hong Kong buyback activity for the week ended October 16, with total repurchases of HKD 1,572 million across 130 companies, little changed from HKD 1,469 million the prior week. Buyback flow stayed concentrated in large-cap tech, with Tencent alone accounting for HKD 501.8 million, roughly 32% of the week's total. Tencent (700 HK) led all repurchases at HKD 501.8 million over 5 days, followed by J&T Express (1519 HK) at HKD 86.8 million over 3 days and Sbp (1177 HK) at HKD 80.9 million over 2 days, with Sbp notably having no buybacks in the prior four weeks. Over the past 30 days, Tencent remained the top repurchaser at HKD 2,107.9 million, ahead of Bidu (9888 HK) at HKD 549.6 million and J&T Express at HKD 466.0 million.
Amlogic, a fabless designer of processors for set-top boxes, smart TVs and smart devices, is seeking an A+H listing. CICC and Haitong are the joint sponsors. We look at the company's core segments: smart multimedia and display SoCs, and AIoT SoCs. We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on the A-H premium.
The SFC acted against both IPO issuers and investors, suspending Cloudbreak and Baicha and making the largest asset restriction in SFC history. The SFC suspects syndicates created false demand for IPO shares, and IPO proceeds may have returned to them through undisclosed financial-product agreements. Based on the SFC press releases, we summarize red flags usable in ECM research and investment, three before listing and two after listing.
Transsion, a mobile phone maker focused on Africa and other emerging markets, raised HKD 2,968.0m (USD 378.2m) from its global offering and will list on HKEX on Thursday, 15 Oct 2026. In our previous notes, we looked at the company's fundamentals and the deal terms. In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before its trading debut.
We rank repeat cornerstone investors in 144 HK IPOs raising US$100m or more, listed from January 2025 to September 2026, split by investor type. Our league table statistics show past 2W returns by investor type and for the top investors within each type. In 9M2026, deals with hedge fund cornerstones underperformed the other four types on median 2W return.
Quarterly analysis of HK-China Stock Connect northbound flows. Highlight: CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, CMB, WUXI APPTEC, PING AN INSURANCE, MIDEA
We screen the Mainland Securities ahead of the HSCEI review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close. One ADD and one DELETE are screened as high-conviction calls this cycle. The second ADD is mid conviction, and the buffer trim it would trigger is low conviction.
Salubris, a CKM-focused innovative pharmaceutical company, is seeking an A+H listing. GS, Citi and CITIC are the joint sponsors. While our previous note covers the fundamentals of the company, in this note we look at its business development, 1H26 results and A-H premium moves. We raise our A-H premium base case for the company, given the shift in peer A-H premiums.
Jio Platforms, a digital connectivity provider, has filed its draft prospectus. The 19 bookrunners include international banks MS, UBS, BOA, Citi, CLSA, GS, HSBC, Jefferies, JPM and BNP Paribas. Our previous note included the company's business, financials and pre-IPO investor backing. In this note, we compare the company with its listed peers, forecast earnings and provide our thoughts on valuation.
Syngenta, the Sinochem-controlled crop protection and seeds group, has reportedly filed confidentially for a Hong Kong listing of about USD5bn. Bookrunners include CICC, UBS, BOA, GS and CITIC. We review Syngenta's withdrawn Shanghai application and its financials, including losses, debt and goodwill. We also look at the industry cycle through its three A-share subsidiaries, and at corporate governance issues, including an anonymous complaint to HKEX.
Dongshan Precision, a maker of PCBs, precision components and optical transceivers, is seeking an A+H listing. UBS, Haitong, GF, and CITIC are the joint sponsors. While our previous note covers the fundamentals of the company, in this note we look at its business development, 1H26 results and A-H premium moves. We think the deal is worth following as the optical transceiver business acquired in 2025 raised 1H26 gross margin to its highest level since 2023.
We screen for HSI ADD candidates ahead of the review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close. Four stocks are screened as mid-conviction ADD candidates this cycle. Three of the four are in the most underweight industry group, and the fourth is in Healthcare.
Jio Platforms, a digital connectivity provider, has filed its draft prospectus. The 19 bookrunners include international banks MS, UBS, BOA, Citi, CLSA, GS, HSBC, Jefferies, JPM and BNP Paribas. We look at the company's two core businesses, mobile connectivity and fixed broadband. We then look at the company's financial profile, cash generation, leverage and pre-IPO investor backing.
We screen third-quarter listings ahead of the HSCI fast-entry result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close. Unlike September, the December cycle adds only third-quarter listings and waives the velocity test. Six stocks are screened as high-conviction ADD candidates this cycle.
Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates. OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit. DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.
Firmus pulled its USD 5.5bn ASX IPO. AS Watson's USD 30bn dual listing was reportedly delayed to 2027, and Moonshot reportedly eyes an HK IPO of up to USD 5bn. ESWIN, the week's only HK listing, raised USD 319m and fell 1.0% on day one. Eight listings in the past month have a median return of -2.5% since IPO. On HKEX, one company filed an AP and three posted PHIPs. Transsion's USD 428m A+H IPO lists on 15 Oct.
We analyzed the Hong Kong SFC aggregate short position report as of Oct 2nd. Aggregate short value for equities decreased by $2,750m (-2.0%) week on week and decreased by $4,072m (-2.9%) over the preceding four weeks. Lenovo led short cover for the week at -$633m (-14.0%), followed by Baba at -$380m (-13.1%) and Meituan at -$195m (-10.9%), while Tencent saw the largest weekly increase at +$133m (+3.4%). Over four weeks, Lenovo also led short cover at -$782m (-16.8%) and Ping An followed at -$729m (-9.1%), while Tencent again led increases at +$418m (+11.4%) and Zj Innolight rose +$199m (+118.4%). Ping An remained the most shorted stock overall at $7,309m, with Kb Laminates also notable for a one week short increase of +$104m (+12.2%).
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